Evaluating likelihoods for the future of Libya - Scenarios of victory
In this article, we shall assess the likelihood of a lasting victory by the GNC, GNA, and COR—in other words, the ability of each government to not only achieve victory, but also to maintain lasting control. By victory, we mean a complete victory by one side over its adversaries, which is not imposed from the top down by external powers.
Would external actors be willing to recognize the COR as the legitimate government, even though it opposed the UN-backed GNA?
90% (Almost Certain).
If the GNC and especially the GNA quickly collapse in the wake of a COR victory, we surmise that most external actors would accept the COR’s legitimacy as the sole government of Libya.
With the GNA dissolved and the COR’s strongman Haftar acting as a bulwark against extremist threats in Libya, external actors would likely gravitate towards accepting the COR’s legitimacy. Even after the formation of the GNA, some external actors rhetorically supported a unity government but militarily backed General Haftar and the COR.
Egypt and the United Arab Emirates currently have forces supporting Haftar’s army, Russia has taken actions that exemplify its support for Haftar; and France has solidified security ties with Egypt in relation to Libya as reported by Reuters, June 8, 2017. Furthermore, the new French government has voiced its support for including Haftar in a united Libyan government – specifically noting the need for strong forces to fight terrorism (Reuters, May 18, 2017).
By recognising Haftar as a strongman to tackle terrorism, France would likely recognize the COR’s legitimacy. Considering the current regional crisis surrounding Qatar and the other Gulf countries, the anti-Islamist COR and General Haftar would be an acceptable alternative to most of the regional actors (except Turkey and Qatar) if the GNA collapsed. Thus, we gave this indicator a 90% likelihood.
Would the COR be able to adequately manage the various fragmenting agendas and ideologies that threaten political cohesion?
40% (Improbable).
Although Haftar has the support of many tribes, militias, and local councils in his opposition to the Islamists, a total victory for the Council of Representatives would bring their differences to the forefront. However, if handled properly, the COR could potentially mitigate fragmenting agendas that threaten its political cohesion. If it empowered provincial governments and ensured equal representation, Cyrenaica’s federalists could be appeased—a strategic move that would satisfy one of the COR’s largest blocs. Considering these realities, we gave this indicator a 40% likelihood.
